Afghanistan Was Always Going to End This Way…..
There seem to be two military truths in the history of the world. 1) Invading Russia is not a good idea. 2) Intervention in Afghanistan never turns out well.
After 20 years, American troops were withdrawn from Afghanistan. And rightfully so! We can argue about whether they should have even been there in the first place, but that’s another story for another day. Within weeks, the Taliban rolled into Kabul and took over the capital as the Afghan president fled. Now, we see the heartbreaking pictures of thousands of Afghan people desperately trying to flee. But we’ve seen this before, haven’t we? And not just in Afghanistan. Since World War II, the police actions, undeclared wars, and now declared wars seem to have all ended in the same way. Lives lost, land fought for, conquered, and lost again.
When the Korean War ended in an armistice in 1953, the geographic division was exactly the same as when the fighting started. Approximately 54,000 Americans were listed as killed in this US police action (though the US Pentagon has revised that number, lowing it since the 1990s.) South Korea has maintained its independence, but it has required a permanent American military presence there. Is that a good practice for maintaining peace — permanent occupation? Were those 54,000 American lives worth it? What would happen if we withdrew from there today?
When Richard Nixon decided to pursue “peace with honor” to end US involvement in Vietnam, the goal was to train and equip the Vietnamese to fight their own war. And rightfully so! As soon as the withdrawal was complete, we witnessed the fall of Saigon, with footage of airlifts of US personnel and allies eerily comparable to what we’ve seen this week. 58,000 Americans were listed as killed in an undeclared proxy war of the Cold War era. Should the US have made a longer commitment to the region? Should we have created a pemanent presence in the country? Should we have sacrificed more American boys on the alter of Containment? Was it all in vain?
When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, the US again stepped in as the world’s policeman to try to prevent the scourge of Communism. Much like what we are seeing today, the US offered military and economic support, but didn’t quite finish the job before withdrawing. We planned for the Afghan people to take up arms and protect themselves. But they didn’t. Hardline Muslim leaders took over the nation creating a crushing environment for more moderate Muslims, especially women. This helped cultivate the rabid anti-American sentiment and radicalization of some Middle Eastern Muslims. And they attacked us using the very training and weapons we gave them. And that of course, led to September 11, 2001, and our return to Afghanistan, thus coming full circle.
So, into a new century we’ve come with the same military issues. We’ve been in Afghanistan for TWENTY years. There are so many complex factors playing out in the region. The competition between hardline and moderate Muslims for control of their government plays a heavy role. Has it ever been feasible, or even advisable, to intervene in what locals view as social and religious matters in the region? Is it possible to separate the military and political from the religious and social? It doesn’t seem so. But all of that is moot. Again, we left billions of dollars in weapons behind. We spent two decades offering military training. And at the end of the day, the Afghan people did not defend themselves. Again. Regardless of whatever promises may have been made, the refusal to fight for ones own freedom ultimately leads to its forfeiture.
The United States is in a perilous position. The rest of the world still expects our intervention to keep the peace, yet they also look at us as occupiers with jingoistic foreign policy. That, too, is a debate for another day, though.
What we are seeing in Afghanistan today would have happened with a withdrawal 15 year ago, or ten, or five. It also would have happened 15 years from now. You cannot give to people a freedom they are not willing to fight to keep. Afghanistan was always going to end this way.
